Eleições na França: vitória pode cair no colo da extrema-direita

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As pesquisas eleitorais mais recentes não indicam um resultado claro na França, com quatro candidatos aparecendo com chances de ir para o segundo turno. Pela extrema-direita, Marine Le Pen, da Frente Nacional (FN), procura capitalizar a desilusão dos eleitores, trabalhadores incluídos, com o neoliberalismo, a integração econômica da Europa na União Europeia (UE), a liberalização do mercado etc. Por conta dessa política demagógica, a extrema-direita aparece como única opositora aos neoliberais, diante de um governo do Partido Socialista (PS) que atacou os direitos trabalhistas e de um candidato da direita tradicional que promete mais neoliberalismo.

Pelos Republicanos, partido da direita tradicional do regime, o candidato será François Fillon. Com Fillon há um deslocamento à direita dos Republicanos, aprofundando um processo que já havia começado com o próprio Sarkozy. O deslocamento à direita do principal partido de direita do regime é resultado da pressão da extrema-direita. O PS, no governo, ainda não tem um candidato definido para concorrer à presidência. O atual presidente, François Hollande, tem a popularidade mais baixa que um presidente francês já teve, e sequer disputará as primárias para concorrer à reeleição.

Entre os sete candidatos às primárias do PS estão Arnaud Montebourg e Manuel Valls. Montebourg propõe uma política mais favorável aos trabalhadores, contra a chamada “austeridade” e o liberalismo que estão levando a Europa ao buraco. Representa uma candidatura que poderia evitar que as eleições sejam polarizadas por Fillon e Le Pen, caso em que as chances de a extrema-direita vencer são mais altas do que sugerem as pesquisas. Valls, por outro lado, foi o primeiro-ministro escolhido por Hollande para fazer a reforma trabalhista passar na marra pelo Congresso, representa um setor direitista do PS. Com o deslocamento também do PS à direita, a extrema-direita chegará ainda mais fortalecida para as eleições, com todos os partidos disputando quem representará melhor as políticas direitistas.

Outro candidato que, segundo as pesquisas, estaria no páreo, é Jean-Luc Mélenchon, da Frente de Esquerda. Como o Syriza na Grécia ou o Psol no Brasil, trata-se de um candidato que tenta disputar com o PS prometendo fazer políticas mais à esquerda. Sem base social, no entanto, terminaria fazendo um governo mais direitista do que o PS sob a pressão dos capitalistas. Como aconteceu com o Syriza.

As eleições na França serão um dos principais acontecimentos internacionais do ano. O jornal Causa Operária vai acompanhar todos os lances da eleição e uma análise dos acontecimentos.

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